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Thread: Final Rankings and BCS embarrassment

  1. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ed La Fave View Post
    I'm not saying it isn't their fault. I'm just saying that game probably isn't indicative of how good UF actually is, they can play much better than that when they actually want to.

    I know what you are saying too, I believe thats how UF won their first NC under The Weasel, OSU did not show up to play against UF even though OSU was the better team. In regarding this UF team I think their record was better than the team itself and maybe it caught up with them just like ND against 'Bama.

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  2. #42
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    A sixteen team playoff compensates for initial youth, conference games, overall schedule, and improvement as the season goes along.

    Poorer teams, lesser teams, lucky teams, and teams with little depth will be culled early. It's done in other sports, and works quite well.

    And this way, no breaks between last regular season game and wait for 40 days BS. They can go right into the playoffs, no one loses their edge, and the most well-rounded team will prevail.

    Emphasis on well-rounded.

    I'm not a proctologist. But I know an ahole when I see one. Nor am I a gynecologist. But I will take a look.

  3. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by UMFarArcher View Post
    A sixteen team playoff...the most well-rounded team will prevail.
    Imagine we had some god-like way of knowing who the best team in the nation really was. As we all know even the best team can lose on any given day to an inferior team. Lets say there is a 5% of such an event occuring. So assuming the best team actually makes the playoffs here is the likelihood of the best team being crowned champion...

    2 Team Playoff = 95%
    4 Team Playoff = 90.25%
    8 Team Playoff = 85.74%
    16 Team Playoff = 81.45%
    32 Team Playoff = 77.38%
    64 Team Playoff = 73.51%

    So in my mind you have to strike a balance between how likely are you to leave the best team out of the playoff by narrowing the field too much versus how likely are you to not crown the best team by widening the field too much.

    The World Series of Poker is an example of a "sport" that widened the field too much. There are so many people playing that it makes it extremely unlikely for the best player to actually win.

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  4. #44
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    So I guess the best basketball team rarely ever wins the NCAA tournament too. But that's what makes it fun. Do we want the "best team on paper" or the team that wins when it matters?


  5. #45
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    Here are some early 2013 pre-season top 25 rankings.

    Bleacher Report (I know but) Only did top 10

    ESPN Nothing about Miami

    Sports Talk Florida (biased but a good list IMO) Miami 17th

    Orlando Sentinel Nothing about Miami

    NationalChamps.net
    Nothing about Miami

    Fan IQ In their "Teams to watch" top 35

    Athlon We are in their top 40. They only ranked the top 25.

    Last edited by CaneDynasty; 01-09-2013 at 11:00 PM.
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  6. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ed La Fave View Post
    Imagine we had some god-like way of knowing who the best team in the nation really was. As we all know even the best team can lose on any given day to an inferior team. Lets say there is a 5% of such an event occuring. So assuming the best team actually makes the playoffs here is the likelihood of the best team being crowned champion...

    2 Team Playoff = 95%
    4 Team Playoff = 90.25%
    8 Team Playoff = 85.74%
    16 Team Playoff = 81.45%
    32 Team Playoff = 77.38%
    64 Team Playoff = 73.51%

    So in my mind you have to strike a balance between how likely are you to leave the best team out of the playoff by narrowing the field too much versus how likely are you to not crown the best team by widening the field too much.

    The World Series of Poker is an example of a "sport" that widened the field too much. There are so many people playing that it makes it extremely unlikely for the best player to actually win.
    I think the 5% number is much too low, as we all saw this year a number of times, and it's highly speculative at best. I think the argument could be made that a two team game chance the best team winning is 50/50, or 50% confidence level.

    A two-GAME (four team) confidence level the best team wins is now 75%, a four game confidence in the best team playoff is now 87.5%, and a five game confidence level that the best team wins is now 93.75%. You'll never get to 100% confidence.


    It's been so long since I took statistics, but I do know that the larger the sample size, the greater the assurance of accuracy.

    We're not talking about 120 team playoffs, only what most folks consider to be 'contenders,' or the top 16 out of the 'top twenty' just because the math works out. The next level would require 32 teams, which I have no problem, and it just adds only one more game.

    The top 16 play, that's five playoff games, the major bowls get a playoff game, there's no break in the action, and New Year's Day, or thereabouts, you have your NC game, and it's done.

    I'm not a proctologist. But I know an ahole when I see one. Nor am I a gynecologist. But I will take a look.

  7. #47
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    What makes cfb so great is the importance of the regular season. Every game matters and you better be up each week.

    If you make a playoff more than eight you water down the season and water down the playoff.

    I like four and think eight is reaching but would be ok.

    Realistically there's only a handful of teams that have the talent and depth to win each year


  8. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by UMFarArcher View Post
    I think the 5% number is much too low..a two team game chance the best team winning is 50/50, or 50% confidence level...A two-GAME (four team) confidence level the best team wins is now 75%, a four game confidence in the best team playoff is now 87.5%, and a five game confidence level that the best team wins is now 93.75%. You'll never get to 100% confidence.
    I think we might be talking past each other here. If the chance of the best team being upset is greater than 5% then the chance of the best team winning gets smaller because they're more likely to lose a game. If you assume the best team is included in the playoff then the larger the playoff gets the chance the best team winning gets smaller because they have more opportunities to lose. It is early for me so I'm probably just misreading your response.

    Last edited by Ed La Fave; 01-10-2013 at 09:52 AM.
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