Thread: Herbstreit: A six-win Miami season would be outstanding

Golden has said anywhere from 15-18 freshman will get time. That's essentially an ENTIRE CLASS. Went through & filled in some more details on your breakdown.

Originally Posted by Ed La Fave

I feel like some folks haven't been terribly explicit when they talk about a lot of freshmen having to play.

Obviously Tracy Howard, Eric Flowers, and Duke Johnson are going
to be asked to do quite a bit. (Like anchor at least a two-deep at their position, start in some cases).

Then we are going to need at least two Freshmen DEs to play a lot being that we only have two upperclassmen at the position. (I'm still crying over this. When has that ever happened before?)

Malcolm Lewis and or Robert Lockhart are probably going to be given significant roles at wide out because aside from Thompkins we have nothing but youth behind the starters.

Antonio Crawford could easily find himself on the field more than you'd like to see for a freshmen. (plus ST).

Our DT position leaves a lot to be desired so guys like Earl Moore or Dequan Ivery might find a role for themselves. (We just have to assume there will be injuries too. Hopefully they happen later)

So although not many freshmen are starting we are probably talking about 8 freshmen receiving significant minutes. (Duke, Howard, Lewis, Moore, Crawford, Hope, Ivery, McCord, Lockhart, Flowers, Dillard, Kirby pre-injury are 11 without thinking that will all play) That is bad news for any team.

Then the fact that we are playing so many inexperienced older guys only makes matters worse. Sharon Green is very green himself. I would be shocked if we didn't play a slew of young inexperienced linebackers (EJ [a redshirt freshman who could easily start], Thurston, Tyrone ["most experienced"], Paul, etc). (At least Gaines has some minutes. Ha)

Kacey Ridgers doesn't have much experience at safety and neither do the guys behind him.

Gunter has never played a snap for UM.

Scott has no real game experience at UM.

At DT Pierre and Robinson have very little experience.

So the problem is that too many freshmen are going to have to play and too many inexperienced older guys are going to have to play. Lots of mistakes are going to be made as a result.

...I do agree with you that some folks overemphasize the role of freshmen on the starting lineups.

The offense really has the most cohesive set with Morris, MJ, OT, WRs, OL & TEs all having meaningful game time when it counted. The D is flat out babies. & I love every one of them, but our veteran is an underperforming safety.

We as fans have to be patient with Golden and the new regime. Its clearly coming to light what kind of mess he took over from the former regime.

Originally Posted by JN Gerhart

Golden has said anywhere from 15-18 freshman will get time.

Thanks to special teams I believe that is fairly accurate...especially since Golden said it.

However, you alluded to the idea that 11 or more would receive significant roles. If that becomes a reality then we are in far more trouble than I originally thought.

I still have small flicker of hope that Golden can deliver a miracle and win 8 games but if we only put together 4 or 5 wins I might lose my mind this fall.

I've talked about the 7 win 2008 team on a few threads but when I look back at that team here are my thoughts...

1.) In 2008 we only returned 8 starters, we're returning more than that this year.
2.) In 2008 we rotated two freshmen at the QB spot, now we've got a Junior with measurable game experience and a decent back up.
3.) In 2008 Sam Sheilds and Khalil Jones were our senior WRs with nothing but freshmen behind them. This year we've got Hurns and Dorsett who are much better wide outs in my book.
4.) In 2008 Epps/Gordon were probably better TEs than we have now.
5.) The OLs were probably very similar. In 2008 Fox and Franklin were the only players I thought were any good and now McDermott and Linder are the only guys I'm excited about.
6.) In 2008 we had Javarris and Coop. Now we have Mike and Duke...I prefer that combo any day of the week.
7.) In 2008 the end spot might have had a bit of an edge with Moncur and Bailey along with some experienced guys like Courtney Harris. As opposed to Chick, Green, and a slew of freshmen.
8.) In 2008 I believe Forston won the DT spot and the rest of the guys were forgettable. I'm hopeful that Smith, Porter, Pierre, Robinson, and the rest of the cast are better.
9.) In 2008 we had an older group at LB with McCarthy, Sharpton, and Cook all of which were good/serviceable players. Now we have a difference maker in Denzel, a steady guy in Buc, and I have to believe one of the younger guys is going to step up big time. So I'd give a slight edge to our LBs
10.) In 2008 we probably had better DBs that contained 3 seniors in Johnson, Ponder, Red***** and DVD (granted he was a liability). I think VT and Rodgers are questionable and we have lots of VERY young talent at CB.
11.) In 2008 we had an extremely inferior coaching staff. Shannon, Nix, and Young can't hold a candle to Golden, Fisch, and Coach D. It isn't even close.

So in my estimation 2012 has better...
1.) Coaching
2.) QBs
3.) WRs
4.) RBs

While 2008 has better...
1.) DEs
2.) DBs

And the rest of the groups were pretty close. I just don't see why so many people expect this team to be worse than 2008. I've also analyzed the strength of schedules and I expect 2012 to be VERY VERY similar to 2008.

...I honestly don't get it!

Originally Posted by JN Gerhart

I think 6-6 has to be attained, for team mindset, national perception & the almighty bowl ban.

But the more I consider that more than 1/3 of the team is about to play their first college snaps in two weeks, the more I shudder at the present & am very excited about the future.

Agree.

Originally Posted by Ed La Fave

Thanks to special teams I believe that is fairly accurate...especially since Golden said it.

However, you alluded to the idea that 11 or more would receive significant roles. If that becomes a reality then we are in far more trouble than I originally thought.

I still have small flicker of hope that Golden can deliver a miracle and win 8 games but if we only put together 4 or 5 wins I might lose my mind this fall.

I've talked about the 7 win 2008 team on a few threads but when I look back at that team here are my thoughts...

1.) In 2008 we only returned 8 starters, we're returning more than that this year.
2.) In 2008 we rotated two freshmen at the QB spot, now we've got a Junior with measurable game experience and a decent back up.
3.) In 2008 Sam Sheilds and Khalil Jones were our senior WRs with nothing but freshmen behind them. This year we've got Hurns and Dorsett who are much better wide outs in my book.
4.) In 2008 Epps/Gordon were probably better TEs than we have now.
5.) The OLs were probably very similar. In 2008 Fox and Franklin were the only players I thought were any good and now McDermott and Linder are the only guys I'm excited about.
6.) In 2008 we had Javarris and Coop. Now we have Mike and Duke...I prefer that combo any day of the week.
7.) In 2008 the end spot might have had a bit of an edge with Moncur and Bailey along with some experienced guys like Courtney Harris. As opposed to Chick, Green, and a slew of freshmen.
8.) In 2008 I believe Forston won the DT spot and the rest of the guys were forgettable. I'm hopeful that Smith, Porter, Pierre, Robinson, and the rest of the cast are better.
9.) In 2008 we had an older group at LB with McCarthy, Sharpton, and Cook all of which were good/serviceable players. Now we have a difference maker in Denzel, a steady guy in Buc, and I have to believe one of the younger guys is going to step up big time. So I'd give a slight edge to our LBs
10.) In 2008 we probably had better DBs that contained 3 seniors in Johnson, Ponder, Red***** and DVD (granted he was a liability). I think VT and Rodgers are questionable and we have lots of VERY young talent at CB.
11.) In 2008 we had an extremely inferior coaching staff. Shannon, Nix, and Young can't hold a candle to Golden, Fisch, and Coach D. It isn't even close.

So in my estimation 2012 has better...
1.) Coaching
2.) QBs
3.) WRs
4.) RBs

While 2008 has better...
1.) DEs
2.) DBs

And the rest of the groups were pretty close. I just don't see why so many people expect this team to be worse than 2008. I've also analyzed the strength of schedules and I expect 2012 to be VERY VERY similar to 2008.

...I honestly don't get it!

Ed, is that REALLY YOU?



Great breakdown! You've now somewhat qualified what my gut was hoping.

Good points by Herb. It is going to all come down on the brain of Stephen Morris. Not his arm. We know how good his arm is and that is never the question mark when discussing his play.

One thing to remember is that it isn't just the amount of freshmen that are going to have to contribute but the number of sophomores as well. We just have too many under-classmen that are going to have to be the stars of the team or contribute significantly.

That just isn't what great teams are made of.

[QUOTE=CaneDynasty;128835]Good points by Herb. It is going to all come down on the brain of Stephen Morris. Not his arm. We know how good his arm is and that is never the question mark when discussing his play.

I wholeheartedly agree. As I said earlier, it will be interesting to see how Morris is in his first full season as starter. He was very good at times last year.

I agree with the other things, CaneDynasty, you said too. I guess I'm hoping, like every else I'm sure is, that this team will surprise people. We all know that there's no National Champioship or anything in our picture anytime soon, but the future does look VERY bright.

Ed, I really appreciate the thorough breakdown, because it brings a great amount of inspection along with the speculation. It's very interesting, & I think there is a strong case against the bottom falling out (4-8).

What is to me another element that bodes poorly is simply the repeating of the process. In a sense, one season is not a large enough sample size--to me--to say "it wasn't this bad the first time & we won 7", because that was one time. If you gave me ten similar seasons & teams, I'd think the trend would be more 6-6 at best, because of so many variables & the constants of youth & lack of productivity.

As an aside, could you pull up how much of the offense we lost 07/08 & are losing 11/12? Also, we lost a major cog on D, but otherwise just lost depth on the DL & guys we were waiting to "get it".

My first take was a 7-5 season, just before camp started. Now I think 6-6. Not a major change. & really I don't think we disagree on a major scale.

& all of us are similar in our hope. Go Canes.

Originally Posted by JN Gerhart

Ed, I really appreciate the thorough breakdown

Not a problem, just counting down the days until BC!

Originally Posted by JN Gerhart

one season is not a large enough sample size

Ah! I somehow overlooked that, you're right. I suppose it is still enough evidence to support a hunch.

Originally Posted by JN Gerhart

As an aside, could you pull up how much of the offense we lost 07/08 & are losing 11/12?

2008 We Returned
93% of our rushing yards (on a team that finished 65th in rushing yards)
0% of our passing yards (as an aside Wright's senior year was really a disaster, wow!)
58% of our receiving yards (aside from Sheilds almost none of those yards came from WRs)
65% of our scoring (on a team that finished 101st in scoring offense)


70% of our interceptions (on a team that finished 55th in INTs)
53% of our tackles
39% of our sacks (on a team that finished 34th in sacks)


2012 We Return
21% of our rushing yards (on a team that finished 71st in rushing yards)
11% of our passing yards
38% of our receiving yards
55% of our scoring (on a team that finished 63rd in scoring offense)


50% of our interceptions (on a team that finished 107th in INTs...the percentage is nearly meaningless because we only had 6 INTs)
51% of our tackles
38% of our sacks (on a team that finished 56th in sacks)

Originally Posted by JN Gerhart

My first take was a 7-5 season, just before camp started. Now I think 6-6. Not a major change. & really I don't think we disagree on a major scale.

I don't think we disagree at all. I've been predicting a 6 or 7 season for a long time now. After looking back at 2008, I've given myself a tiny bit of hope for an 8 win season but I realize that is probably not all that likely.

...I do feel pretty strongly that we will win no less than 6 games though. The ACC is just too weak and Bethune is a gimme.

...btw here are two sites I like to use when doing analysis. http://www.cfbstats.com and http://www.cfbdatawarehouse.com/

This has always been the easy way to play football and win, Defense, run, create turnovers, don't turnover, special teams. I go back to the Dolphins in the late 90s were 8-2 with Huard playing this way and Marino returns to the team and it fell apart. We don't have a legit 2 deep if the 2nd guy is a true frosh, that isn't true depth! Morris has to make the chain-moving throws or we will lose.This is the way San Fran played all year with no training camp and a still below average QB. If Fisch can start off this way to get the young guys up to speed, when we get to the ND-UVA tough stretch he'll be able to trust Morris a little more and the freshman wr on offense.